My prediction:
- Investors continue to fuel demand, choking supply
- Plans to monetize LLMs don’t pan out
- Eventually, lenders call their margins
- Investors see the called margins and get spooked; demand fizzles
- AI companies desperately try to liquidate their positions. Seeing the price of components, there’s a rush to sell while prices are high.
- PC components flood the market
- Record high supply, record low prices
- PC gaming golden age
HBM and Vera Rubin are not useful for PC Gaming, at least not for current architectures. Main issue is that DDR5 production simply got cut to make more HBM. But there will be a huge amount of LPDDR, NVME / SSD drives and refurbished Hard Drives available, and hardware for running inference at home for pretty powerful models will become cheap as fuck, liberating us all from the hyperscalers; the open weights models from china are available for everyone.
At least i pray it will be this way.
But aren’t the wafers uncut? It could be used for anything if they’re just in storage.
If the memory wafers are largely HBM, so they can’t be used for gaming hardware.
If you’re thinking of HBM gaming GPUs, the chip design pipeline is too long. If Nvidia/AMD/Intel started making one right now, and rushed it, it would still be many years away.
…However, a lot of LPDDR5 is being made too.
Hence the rumors of AMD hedging their bets and using LPDDR for some future GPUs.
According to Tom’s Hardware, it includes “DDR5 and LPDDR4/LPDDR5 as well as premium HBM.”
