• 0 Posts
  • 58 Comments
Joined 7 months ago
cake
Cake day: April 4th, 2026

help-circle
  • So what do we do next? I mean, in terms of things that might actually help?

    Become a society with strong critical thinking skills who values people based on reasoned takes based on experience and science over people who value rapid, loud appeals to emotion.

    One piece of that is recognizing that doing things like putting flat earthers up in high altitude planes or near space is a waste of resources that could’ve been spent doing something better.

    EDIT: that last paragraph was an incomplete thought. Individual flat earthers have done the whole scientific method thing, and proved themselves incorrect and stepped away from it. How do you handle the people that refuse to be convinced? If there’s no level evidence that a person will accept and they’re out in the forest commons chopping down trees to build a tower to whatever is on top of earth, how do you tolerate it at a societal level? It’s still an incomplete thought.











  • We could put a lot of nicer groceries up front and hope nobody looks deeper!

    But then what happens if someone notices we’re selling a lot of fridges? They could buy insurance on the price of our fridges (options), and that wouldn’t be good because we know the price is going down, that’s why we’re selling them (duh). So we’ll have to sneak all these things out the door and hope nobody looks or notices until we’ve got them all sold.

    I guess that’s kind of a rough metaphor, but that stuff all still goes on. The math that tells you when to sell the fridge is where all the real value is.


  • Like the article says, their internal risk management models are telling them to get the risk off their books.

    Taking on the debt in the first place is like agreeing to store a gallon of milk in a fridge for an undetermined amount of time. The milk is going to go bad, and when it does the jug (or bag) might explode forcing a cleanout of the fridge, throwing out other things in the fridge, and maybe replacing the fridge altogether if the milk leaked down into a lot of crevices. Everyone knows the milk will go bad, but the big banks will know how old the fridge is, what coolant it uses, how old the compressor is, how many times a day the fridge has been opened, the average time it stays open, the dairy the cow who produced the milk, and the name of the cow if they can get it. The milk is going bad quicker than expected, and they’re finding out they don’t want to be the ones to guess when the jug will explode, and they’re also finding out that nobody else wants to buy the jug.

    Oracle pulling a “god did it” was probably a part of this, but nobody involved is going to give a real answer.





  • An investment that would pay off if the tech industry went to hell would be Put options on QQQ (an ETF that tracks the NASDAQ-100). You have to get both the timing and the drop correct, and better funded groups with much faster computers AND the ability to make trades to prop up the market while they unload their shit will be competing against you (every options trade has an opposite side and most of them expire worthless). Watch the movies Margin Call and The Big Short for research as much as playing the lottery can be researched (they’re good movies so it’s time well spent anyway). Make a movie night out of it and watch The Other Guys which was directed by the same guy who directed The Big Short. Watch through the end credits.

    I didn’t read the article because gizmodo, but as other people here have said, Dr. Burry (he’s played by Christian Bale in The Big Short) often thinks things are going to go south, and there’s usually reason to think so, but in general as Warren Buffett could easily have said, “stonks only go up.” NVDA, AAPL, and MSFT make around 15% or so of the entire world stock market and around 20% of the US market. Nobody’s going to let them collapse and even without the AI craze they still have all the other stuff to fall back on. Thumbs will go on the scale to an extent even greater than the 2008 collapse.


  • All of them at once.

    Get very, very good at virtual machines, containers, and networks and set up your computer so that it looks like an OSCP test lab environment. Have your daily driver computer have its own user space networks decoupled from each other.

    We’re kind of at a point where a lot of concepts have been done and done well. If you get used to having NFS (securely!) set up, you can run it on your host computer which runs something relatively boring and have a bunch of VMs that do whatever you want. Tried something weird with the latest Gentoo and it didn’t work? Flip the off switch on that VM, mount the image as a drive and copy off what you want, then start over.