Will they lobby for laws that prohibit Linux or make it difficult to install? What actions might they take in the future?
I’d wager they have enough resources to stave it off for as long as possible, and when they can’t do that anymore they will have a strategy for making money off of their “services” in the linux space.
Microsoft is part of the cabal at this point. Businesses give it money because they’re expected to.
All out street warfare against Linux users! They’ll be arming their army with AI laser guided missiles! The backdoored AI drones!
MS already doesn’t have a monopoly in any meaningful sense anymore.
- https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share#monthly-200901-202507 - in early 2009, almost 95% of web usage was from Windows, by now it is at around 28%, no longer even the most popular OS, which is now Android around 42%
- https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide/#monthly-200901-202507 - even looking only at the desktop and ignoring the shift to mobile devices, Windows fell from ~95% to ~72% during the same time period, mostly losing to macOS but more recently also Linux
Windows isn’t the main way Microsoft makes money anymore anyway…
They might not make much money from windows but it’s still a very important point of control. If they control the os then they can control what’s pre-installed. They can control what office suit, cloud service, ai slop, spyware to use before any other conpetitor has a chance to advertise.
The desktop has been losing market for a while. I feel Windows is already under serious threat (if not already in the minority) when you think about all the devices that mainstream audiences orbit around (phones, tablets, portable consoles, etc), often using the Linux kernel. Only about a third of most website traffic comes from desktops.
Many of the people who frequently use Windows desktop do so because of their job, and often avoid using it outside of work as much as possible, since it feels like… well, work.
Microsoft has been desperately trying to appeal to those other bigger sectors of the pie and has failed every time.
PC Gaming was one sector they had advantage on, yet that has already started to crumble thanks to Valve. I feel that MS will just try to push for integrating their xbox with Windows OS more and more…
I feel it’s a battle with many fronts, since PCs have many uses… so MS is likely to run their typical spiel: copy what the competition are doing and try to centralize/integrate it with their OS in a way that gives them an advantage, as they are famous for doing.
Another sector they can do this is with the WSL (Windows Subsystem for Linux)… they could turn Windows into a frontend for running Linux apps… so if Linux apps became popular, they could try to advertise Windows as the “best” way to run Linux software without losing the full first party support of legacy Windows software.
It’s mobile devices that are eroding Windows market share on desktops, not Linux.
Linux already dominates the server space, it runs the internet and super computing, but it will NEVER be a threat to Microsoft on desktops.
Never say never
I think it is clear that it’s just a matter of time that a faster, more secure, free and open source operating system will win over a worse alternative.
The vast majority of desktop users don’t give two flips about security, nor freedom, they don’t even know what those things are and don’t care to be informed.
I’ve even seen a few (on reddit) asking for Linux to support giving kernel level permissions to applications, so they can play a few videogames, they are fine with having rootkits on their PC, that’s the level of “care” they have.
But that’s ok, Linux is already a de-facto “monopoly” on the server side, the most important one, it doesn’t need to win over also desktops.
Maybe requiring locking bootloader “for safety” on desktop computers if they want to run windows 12
Not an option, at this point a somewhat big part of the people don’t want to run windows 12 so do not care.
And vendors who agree could simply see they sells down since a, at this point large enough, percentage of the buyer prefer someone who don’t agree.
They will adapt.
Embrace, extend, extinguish. They will become Linux.
In all seriousness, if you look into how windows manages its security now, it leverages virtualization to essentially run windows inside of a hypervisor. At some point in the future, the legacy windows kernel is going to just be another virtual machine running side by side with Linux and the hypervisor will probably run their HyperV tech on top of a Linux (compatible) kernel.
Then they will say that you need their version of Linux to run specific hardware and software.
EEE
I’m going to go with “nothing”. They blend their numbers but I’d be willing to bet the amount of money they make selling direct licenses is tiny. (Tiny at their scale, I’d take it any day.) The whole OEM business isn’t even huge to them. If they start losing the enterprise market, then I’m sure they would throw down, but you and everyone you know installing Linux would be fine. Have you noticed how easy it is to steal windows and how there seem to be very few repercussions? That says volumes about what they think the revenue potential of that market is…
They are already lobbying for stupid shit, and coordinating deals with manufacturers.
Add more spyware, isn’t that the de facto mentality of Microsoft? Add more spyware so they can force you to buy more crap, al for the “greater good”. Oh yeah, and most likely try and take over secureboot with some Microsoft crap allowed only, “for to protect the children”.
Damnit Jim I’m a doctor, not an actor
I believe they just don’t care, since not only is Windows not very profitable anymore, the real money is at businesses. So as long as they sell licenses to businesses (business laptops, etc), but also GitHub Enterprise (yes, Micro$oft also owns GitHub) Microsoft earns enough money that way. And also think cloud (Azure)…
My guess is therefor that the focus on Windows isn’t that big anymore. I just hope more companies and gaming devs/publishes also push native binaries towards Linux.
not only is Windows not very profitable anymore, the real money is at businesses.
Hear me out, this is exactly why they care. Windows as a product isn’t profitable anymore, but as a market share it is. Apple has always enjoyed their locked down ecosystem and Google is trying to completely block side loading on devices we already largely don’t have control over the bootloader. It’s no secret Microsoft has been seething with jealousy for years.
https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide
You’re a soulless corporate ghoul, how do you make those numbers work for you? Why do you think they have the absolute gall to tell you to throw your computer out and get one that supports TPM 2.0? Why do you think there are still so many people willing or not that will swallow that bitter pill that’s Windows 11?
I’m not trying to call you out in particular here or anything, but I think it’s foolish to assume they don’t
I agree with you.
Everyone who is saying that windows isn’t profitable or no longer an important part of microsoft’s business strategy is just a parrot succumbing to the snowball effect.
Yes, i bet they also think what is used by most people permeates upward i.e. if most use win as young companies will pivot to win for work.
Agreed
I think Windows is primarily a development environment for Xbox, just as macOS is primarily a development environment for iOS Everything else of value from Microsoft is available via the web/cloud (even Office)
Eventually, Microsoft might even decide that it’s more profitable to abandon Windows completely
office 365 is a fraction of the true power of office. do not even try to compare the two.
I think you’re mixing up Office 365 and Office Online.
Office 365 is a subscription for Microsoft Office that includes access to both the full, more powerful desktop Office applications and the much less powerful Office Online.
Though I don’t think it’s even called Office 365 anymore, but I don’t respect MS enough to bother to Google what they’re calling it now.
MS hasn’t released an Office version outside 365 for 8 years.
365 is Office for them.
I’ll respect office 365 when it respects recusive power points
I stand corrected. Thanks.
I agree
But how many paying customers need features that are not in the online/cloud versions of Office?
Sure this is a shrinking number of people?
the same could be said about libreoffice, but the only reason I gave Microsoft money for office was for dealing with specifically the edge cases where a document won’t work with other word processing programs. The browser based ms office is comparable to Google docs, usable 98% of the time.
Embrace, extend, extinguish.
SQL Server runs on Linux. Azure supports Linux. The next step is to extend into their own distro, get everyone using it, then drop support for mainstream Linux.
Will it work? Maybe. They’ll have to make Microsoft Linux more attractive than Debian and Red Hat.
What do you think Ubuntu is? Microsoft’s touch in it is so obvious that only a fool would miss it.
systemd anyone?
/s
Where does LP work these days, anyway?
Microsoft already lost the home OS battle when people switch their main devices to smartphones with iOS or Android.
Some others have already said the “embrace, extend, extinguish” but here’s my take on it. Pair it with Secure Boot and TPM 2.0
- Embrace: Secure Boot can already work with Linux, how lucky! This gives them not exactly control, but authoritative denial over your boot process and hardware.
- Extend: This is the part that remains to be seen. If they feel threatened enough by the shift in the gaming landscape, mind you not over losing out on sales or the hearts of gamers or anything, but again control, they may begin to make Linux offerings. A concession to allow an honest to god, thick Office client on Linux would certainly appeal to some. Adobe gets in on that action to back them up with Photoshop and Activision with Call of Duty, etc.
- Extinguish: TPM 2.0. One of the less talked about features of this is remote attestation (“Remote attestation allows changes to the user’s computer to be detected by authorized parties. For example, software companies can identify unauthorized changes to software, including users modifying their software to circumvent commercial digital rights restrictions.” - DRM). We’re already seeing this with CoD on Windows. They’ll allow you to run much requested Windows software on Linux, even provide direct support possibly, but at the cost of not precisely control but authoritative denial. Which still works out to be control in most ways since if you want to use the software and they are to remotely attest, they can also insist that part of that attestation is you running some sort of telemetry or not running software they disagree with.
The reason I think this route is highly likely is because it plays well with uninformed consumers. To the untrained eye it looks like they’re giving ground and actually allowing for broader support of their software while effectively gaining control over the environment once again and removing the biggest benefits of running FOSS on your system.
Also worth noting that they own Github, which puts them in a position to disrupt a huge amount of Linux infrastructure if they ever feel like it. They might also pull some weird move like trying to buy Canonical or something like that.
This is a good point. I’ve been trying to make it clear in a lot of my predictions that Microsoft doesn’t want or even need full control, just enough. They don’t even need to do anything particular here other than continue to manage github with their current level of incompetence.
Was trying to source an article here, wasn’t there just an outage or some other major issue a few days ago? Anyways …
I think what’s missing is the author of pulseaudio and systemd among other “modern” Linux tech (I.e. adopted by many popular distros) is a Microsoft employee.
